The Australian share market entered the new calendar year with gusto and with positive momentum, allowing the S&P/ASX200 index to rise to 4950.70 by January 11 (intra-day high 4955.10), after which a decline followed and pulled the index back to 4505.10 by February 9 (intra-day low 4464.90).
If we concentrate on the intra-day peak and trough, instead of the closing index levels, the difference between the January high and the subsequent February low is 9.9%.
One month later, and the index has just managed to rise above the 4800 level again, still 3% short of the previous peak, but well above last month's low.
The question most investors will be asking is: what comes next? The expert commentariat remains heavily divided between those who maintain the index is on its way to test the 4000 level, while others are talking about 5500, and possibly higher.
These differences in market views have once again been highlighted by market strategists at leading stockbrokers in Australia updating their views and projections post the February reporting season.
On one hand we find the likes of Tony Brennan at Deutsche Bank, who believes the ASX200 is on its way to reach 6000 by year-end. On the other hand we find Tim Rocks at Bank of America Merrill Lynch who maintains the index won't be further than 4500 by late December.
In between are the likes of Greg Goodsell at RBS Australia (sees index at 5300 by December), Atul Lele at Credit Suisse (5100) and Paul Brunker at JP Morgan (5000). On Monday, Macquarie strategist Tanya Branwhite and her team updated their views, and while not as bullish as Deutsche Bank, Macquarie's projections still sit toward the top end of the market.
By late February next year, predict Branwhite and co, the ASX200 should be at 5548, representing a total return for investors in excess of 22% of which 4.5% will come in the form of dividends.
What all these index projections have in common though (okay, maybe with the exception of Deutsche Bank) is they suggest the ASX200 may not break out of its current trading range until the second half of this year, at the earliest. From a valuation point of view, this is but a plausible scenario.
To put it very simply: the closer the S&P/ASX200 moves toward the previous peak at 4955.10, the higher the inclination will be for investors to start selling their shares, as many equity valuations will start looking stretched. On the other hand, the closer the index falls to the previous trough below 4500, the more value oriented investors will look into buying again, as they will see true bargain opportunities.
As one stockbroker put it to me two weeks ago: it comes to a point where you feel it is near impossible to not make money if you buy at these levels.
Think Telstra ((TLS)) below $3, for instance.
What are the chances the index will remain in between 4464.90 and 4955.10? And what are the chances the index will ultimately break out of this range; either to the downside or to the upside?
The answer to these questions remains closely tied to what happens to earnings expectations for fiscal 2011. Last year, investors bought shares in anticipation of a normalisation in share market values. This is why those stocks that had fallen the most during the bear market of 2008 have outperformed the more solid and stable companies in the share market. This year, however, investors are looking for value through gains in profits on the back of the global economic recovery.
Growing profits will not only justify last year's jump in Price-Earnings (PE) ratios, it will also create additional value as today's lofty share prices will look relatively cheap on FY11 multiples. Of course, this argument carries more weight when the index is near 4500 than when it is above 4900.
Let's put some numbers behind the theory. The ASX200 above 4800 translates into 16.3 times average earnings per share for fiscal 2010 (consensus forecasts as measured and calculated by FNArena). That's well above the decade average of 14.5, and reason why market bears are constantly complaining about how "expensive" the share market is.
On FY11 projections, however, the Australian share market is still only trading at 13.6 times consensus expectations, and that still leaves further room for appreciation.
Add an extra 100 points to the index and the FY11 market multiple rises to 13.9x, still below the long-term market average, but getting closer and don't forget: FY11 doesn't commence until July this year (though that's drawing closer too).
On current consensus projections, the ASX200 could well rise to around 5117 before we should start using the label "fully valued" on FY11 metrics. But then again, it is a near certainty that earnings forecasts for many cyclical companies will rise further in the weeks and months ahead. Think coal and iron ore companies, for instance.
Many an expert with a longer term horizon will also argue that Australian banks are still available at relatively cheap valuations (and I can only agree).
Here are a few examples of valuations for large cap stocks (they represent the most index weight) on FY11 metrics:
- Rio Tinto ((RIO)) is trading on 10.4x FY11 consensus EPS
- ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) is on 11x FY11 consensus projections
- National Australia Bank ((NAB)) is trading on consensus FY11 PE of 9.6
- Telstra ((TLS)) is valued less than 9 times FY11 consensus EPS
- Qantas ((QAN)) is on a FY11 consensus PE of 11.17
- BHP Billiton ((BHP)) is on 11.16
- Harvey Norman ((HVN)) is on 12.75
As one can see from this short list, many of the index heavyweights are still valued well below the market average for FY11. This supports the view that large caps are poised to outperform small caps in general terms in the year ahead.
This suggests the index can rise further on the back of these large caps stocks closing the valuation gap with their smaller peers, not to mention the potential for further increases to earnings projections for FY11 and beyond. Some resources analysts, for instance, have again started talking about "peak margins" for BHP and Rio Tinto, most probably in FY12.
The problem with all of the above, however, is there is still downside to market estimates and valuations. China's growth target of 8%, for example, looks rather subdued when one considers it was growing at double digits in Q4. And economies worldwide are now slowing down, coming from a strong, stimulus-supported finish to 2009. The latter hasn't received much attention in media and research reports just yet, but I will be digging deeper into this matter later this week (subscribers: stay tuned).
On pure valuation metrics, however, I'd be surprised if the index would fall much below the 4500-level, unless, of course, the current positively-biased economic environment not only weakens noticeably, but reverses into a negative trend instead. This continues to be a real and present danger, even though I am inclined to hold a longer term positive view.
FNArena calculates consensus sentiment, price targets and earnings forecasts on a daily basis for more than 400 Australian listed companies. Subscribers can access these data, via tools and applications such as Stock Analysis and the R-Factor, every day on the FNArena website.