Rio forecasts short-term increase in activity
Rio Tinto Limited (RIO) expects economy wide inventory rebuilding in the OECD to provide a short-term boost to activity. The mining giant’s comments followed the IMF’s predictions of global growth of almost 4% and Chinese GDP growth of between 9% and 10%.
"Such growth acceleration would have positive implications for metals and minerals markets," Rio said.
"Although it is still unclear whether a sustainable recovery in private sector confidence and economic activity will emerge as the fiscal and monetary stimulus wanes or is removed over time."
The company pointed to risks to the outlook including the possibility of an aggressive tightening of monetary policies in Asian economies in response to concerns about consumer and/or asset price inflation. This point appears particularly significant considering the current concerns the market has at the moment in regards to the possible tightening of China’s monetary policy.
Rio said it is also possible that consumer spending in the OECD would remain constrained due to concerns about employment prospects, housing wealth and increased tax burdens.
"Economic data releases and news flow will affect investors’ perceptions about the likelihood of such risks compared with the strength of the more positive forces on the markets," the company said.
"This will lead to negative and positive swings in sentiment affecting commodity prices through speculation."
In Rio’s 2009 Annual Report CEO, Tom Albanese, said while the company recognises major short term uncertainties remain, the outlook for Rio’s industry is attractive long term given continued growth and urbanisation of the developing world.
"The exponential growth of China’s demand for iron ore, copper, coal and aluminium is expected to continue over the next 15 years, as the average wealth of many millions of people increases," Mr Albanese said.
"Their consumption of raw materials will rise accordingly. As China nears the top of the commodity intensity usage curve, India is expected to follow, supporting a further potential wave of strong commodity demand."
While acknowledging 2009 marked a positive turning point for the company, Mr Albanese said major challenges remain.
"The Tier 1 deposits that are the focus of our strategy are becoming harder to find and more technologically difficult to develop," he said.
"There are pressures in countries well endowed with minerals for governments to gain a greater proportion of resource rents."
Looking at the proposed partnership with Chinalco chairman, Jan du Plessis, said that while the board considered it both strategically and financially attractive, the proposition was nevertheless highly controversial.
"It became clear to me that many shareholders had considerable misgivings about the proposed transaction," Mr du Plessis said referring to his meetings with a large number of shareholder groups.
"These concerns related not only to the financial terms of the transaction, but there were high levels of discomfort about the structure of our relationship with Chinalco."
He added that the company deeply regretted the loss of the opportunity to establish a strategic partnership that would have fundamentally changed Rio’s relationship with its largest customer base.
"We will continue to work towards extending our relationship with Chinalco and to pursue business opportunities that may be to our mutual benefit."
Mr du Plessis said some of the pressure was relieved by the proposed production joint venture with BHP Billiton in relation to the two company’s respective iron ore assets in Western Australia.
"The joint venture will allow us to capture the enormous long term synergy benefi ts that would result from the integration of our production facilities," Mr du Plessis said.
"The value that could be captured has been estimated to be at least US$10 billion."
As at 1036 AEDT, Rio shares were up 47c to $75.85.