One year on from the bear market lows of the global financial crisis, after a corner turned on 10 March 2009 when Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit said the US bank was on track to post a profit in the March 2009 quarter, most companies locally have posted strong gains.
Of course, some recoveries have been stronger than others.
Telstra shareholders have continued to see their investment erode, while other sectors and stocks rallied. The telco hit an all-time low of $2.88 earlier this month.
Not even at the depths of the GFC did investors have so little faith in the company, with Telstra’s GFC closing low of $2.96 coming on 19 March 2009.
By 10 March 2010, Telstra shares closed at $2.99, a mere 1% gain in a year.
Telstra wasn’t alone in the telco sector, with Telecom NZ the only company in the ASX/100 to actually be lower on 10 March 2010 than at their GFC low.
In early March 2009, Telecom NZ shares were trading at $1.75, against $1.72 last week.
Among ASX/100 listed telco’s the average gain from GFC lows has been just 4%, with Singtel posting a 12% return.
It’s a different story for the Material and Resource stocks, which make up 18 members of the ASX/100 – or 19 if you include Eldorado Gold Corporation, which first listed last December.
The average gain there has been nearly 120%!
Australia’s third-largest iron ore producer, Fortescue, is the sector’s outstanding performer with its shares rising from GFC closing lows in mid-November 2008 of $1.29 to $4.82 last week, a rise of 274% (although its shares have been as high as $5.57 in the last year, a 332% hike).
That said, Fortescue is still only just under one-third of its way back to its pre-GFC high of $13.15 in June 2008.
Another notable gainer is Aquarius Platinum, whose shares have risen 216%. The South African based miner's shares hit a low $2.03 on 28 October 2008, but have since risen to $6.42 by 10 March 2010.
It wasn't all big gains in the sector. Agrichem company Nufarm’s shares have only returned 11% from GFC lows, a far cry from rival Incitec Pivot – its shares are up 101%.
Looking at the numbers for the Materials and Resources sector, the 120% average rise in share price is still only 38% of the way back to their average peak prices seen on 23 November 2007.
Meanwhile, if you invested in the Property Trusts sector you should have done even better with prices there, on average, rising 140% for ASX/100 listed companies.
Goodman Group shares have surged 340% to 61.5c, while the sector’s largest play, Westfield, has seen its shares rise 35% to $12.07
Interestingly there, prices have only recovered 20% of the way back to their June 2007 highs (on average).
Another point to note about Property Trusts is that their peak in June 2007 was earlier than for most sectors, while their emergence from lows in March 2009 proved Property Trusts to one of the slowest recoverers.
Elsewhere the Industrials sector average share price has risen, on average, 138% from GFC lows, led by rail and ports operator Asciano whose share have surged 423% from 35.5c per share to $1.86 last week.
Qantas shares have doubled to $2.84 from exactly a year previously.
Seek and Transfield shares were up 236% and 261% respectively.
Looking at the Banks and Financials sector, the average return for ASX/100 listed stocks was 102%.
Among the big banks, Macquarie led the way higher from closing lows of $15.75 (although intra-day lows touched $15.00) to just under $50 last Wednesday – a rise of 211%.
CBA rallied 131%, ANZ 101% and Westpac 87% from GFC lows a year ago, while NAB has risen 67%.
However, in a further breakdown of their recovery, CBA shares are now around 87% recovered to their 2007 highs, while NAB is just 37% of the way back from a low of $16.03 to their November 2007 all-time high of $44.84.
However, it’s the second-tier Challanger Financial Group which outperformed them all, surging just over 300% from their GFC low on 13 March 2009.
Among the underperformers, IAG shares have risen from $3.06 to $4.00 – or around 30%.
Consumer Staples shares were among the poorest sectors to invest, with the average gain there for ASX/100 listed companies coming in at just under 50%.
Wesfarmers easily outperformed, with its shares rising in value from $14.54 on 12 December 2008 to $32.23 last week – a rise of 121%.
The second highest gainer in the sector was Coca-Cola Amatil which saw its share price gain 62% to $11.17.
Wesfarmers rival, Woolworths, gained a modest 22% from July 2008 lows, with their price last week of $28.20 representing a 42% recovery to pre-GFC highs. Wesfarmers shares are around 63% of their way back.
Metcash, by comparison, has seen its shares rise just 10% from GFC lows, however are only 22% recovered back to their April 2007 peak of $5.40.
In other sectors, for the 14 Consumer Discretionary stocks on the ASX/100 the average return has been 87%.
The best performer has been JB Hi-Fi, whose shares are up 176%, followed by David Jones, which has risen 141% from 4 March 2009 lows of $2.09 to $5.07 last week.
It’s the gamers who have lagged noticeably for the sector, with Tabcorp and Tatts both returning around 11%, while Aristocrat returned 37%.
As would be expected with persistent unemployment in the US and interest rates rising here, Consumer Discretionary stocks have been some of the slowest to recover, with the average share price only 32% of the way back to their peaks pre-GFC.
The sector, on average, hit its peak on 25 March 2007, only emerging from lows in late February 2009.
Elsewhere, the Energy sector has returned an average of 98% from mid-November 2008 lows to last week across the sector’s 11 stocks.
The best performer has been Arrow Energy, however that company’s shares have been influenced by the recent US$3.3 billion takeover offer from PetroChina and Royal Dutch Shell.
WorleyParsons and Centennial Coal have returned 133% and 146%.
If you had invested in Santos your returns would have been the lowest in the ASX/100 Energy sector, with that company’s share price rising just 44% to $13.90 last week from lows of $9.63 on 17 October 2008. Uranium specialist ERA has posted 85% gains, however is still only 47% of the way back to pre-GFC highs.
Interestingly the Energy sector hit its pre-GFC highs later (April 2008) than other sectors and GFC lows earlier than most other sectors (October 2008).
Of course, the ASX/100 isn’t always the best place to look for the best returns.
Pacific Brands hit closing lows of 13c on 5 March 2009, before hitting highs of $1.52 on 19 October 2009 – a 1,070% return.
Otherwise Bradken may have been your preference – its shares have spiked from 97c on 9 March 2009 to $7.30 today, for a lazy 652% gain.