New Zealand reported today seasonally adjusted current account balance deficit of $3.1 billion for the December quarter, a swing from a $39 million surplus in the prior quarter – the first such surplus posted in more than 20 years. The swing from a surplus to a deficit was driven by an increase in income earned by foreign investors from their New Zealand investments, Statistics New Zealand said.
The result is worse than analysts’ consensus and is likely to put more pressure on the New Zealand central bank to keep interest rates at 2.5% – a figure that has remained steady for the last eight months, and something they have already indicated they would do until at least mid-2010.
The result also means that New Zealand investors are more likely to invest in Australia’s debt market where the Australian Reserve Bank looks likely to continue raising interest rates in the short term above the current level of 4%.
The New Zealand central bank is also faced with higher unemployment, currently sitting around 7.3%, easing inflationary pressures.
In the fourth quarter CPI actually fell 0.2%.
Other economic indicators in New Zealand also continue to underwhelm, with retail sales falling 0.4% from November to December.
And not including auto sales, retail sales fell by as much as 2%.
Retail sales is an important economic indicator the shaky isles with around 59% of GDP coming from domestic consumption.
Looking at the current account result, the June and September 2009 quarters, after tax profits of foreign owned New Zealand banks were reduced by unusually large company tax transactions.
”In the December 2009 quarter, some of this tax was reversed, contributing to a rise in profits earned by foreign owned banks.”
"Company profits are returning to levels seen before the effects of the tax charges and the financial crisis," government and international accounts manager John Morris said.
For the year, the current account deficit was NZ$5.5 billion, or 2.9% of GDP – worse than the widely expected 1.9% of GDP.
Meanwhile, The New Zealand Herald reported this morning that the NZ oil industry could reap NZ$30 billion annually by 2025, more than the country’s dairy industry.
The country earned just NZ$2.8 billion from oil in 2008.