TSV: Alcoa Commits to Funding
ALCOA COMMITS TO FUNDING OF WARRO 4 WELL AND 3D SEISMIC PROGRAM
The Board of Transerv Energy is pleased to confirm that Alcoa of Australia has formally committed to funding the Warro 4 appraisal well and a 3D seismic program, which are now expected to commence late this year. The operator, Latent Petroleum, has started work to secure a rig to drill Warro 4 and is finalising plans and approvals for the 3D seismic survey. Recent positive developments in analogous tight sand plays in the US provide increased confidence that Warro will be commercially successful and guidance for improved fraccing techniques and well planning for these play types. The Warro partners are working closely with US tight gas experts to tap into the latest knowhow, and how best to apply it to Warro.
A recap on the Warro 3 well:
•Warro 3 was a vertical well drilled from February to April 2009, and completed with an initial 7 stage frac and a follow up 2 stage frac.
•A flow rate of 5 mmcfpd was achieved for a 7 hour period from frac zones 3 to 6 prior to water breakthrough. As a result, it is apparent that commercial gas flow rates can be achieved by fraccing the Warro sands. After 7 hours, substantial water inflow to the well inhibited the gas flow rate, which was reduced to 1 mmcfpd.
•Warro 3 was deliberately located in an area of intense natural fracturing (this is common practice as the natural fractures in tight sands can augment the flow rate). It appears that a large natural fracture connected Warro 3 (post frac) to an aquifer, probably located approximately 50m above the target zones. The Warro 3 well was not designed to deal with water, so the water entered the well bore and inhibited gas flow.
Technical evaluation post Warro 3 is highly positive •Warro 3 produced substantial new data for the play. Following the well the Warro partners commissioned renewed and detailed technical evaluation by the Discovery Group and Ely and Associates, US experts in tight gas projects.
•Based on this evaluation, the Warro project is considered likely to flow gas at commercial rates, with the principal challenge being management of any water flow to the well bore.
•The experts emphasised that there are numerous successful tight gas plays in the USA that flow significant water, however, well plans and completions are specifically designed to deal with the water. Also, there has been substantial improvement in fraccing techniques in analogous tight sand plays in the USA (see below).
These new techniques have resulted in significantly improved flow rates for similar play types. • The expert’s recommendation is to proceed with the Warro project with three significant adjustments. Firstly, the next well will be located away from large natural fractures to reduce the size and risk of water breakthrough. Secondly, the well is designed to deal with some potential water flow.
Thirdly, the frac be redesigned based on the recent fraccing improvements in the analogous Granite Wash play. The Granite Wash – now the most analogous US play to Warro
• The US experts have drawn attention to the Granite Wash play located in northern Texas and western Oklahoma in the USA, which is closely analogous to Warro.
• The Granite Wash is also a tight sand play at similar depth of about 3,500‐4,500m. The reservoir characteristics are also similar. If anything the Warro sands are potentially more favourable in that they are thicker and with zones of higher permeability.
• In recent years more advanced fraccing techniques have resulted in a breakthrough in the economics of the Granite Wash play.
This has seen an evolution from simple gel fracs (similar to those used at Warro‐3), to large scale slick water fracs in vertical wells, to multiple large scale slick water fracs in horizontal wells. With each change in technology there has been a marked increase in initial production rate (IPs) from 1‐ 1.5mmcfd, to 3– 5mmcfd, to 8‐ 20mmcfd respectively.
• The cost of a vertical well in the Granite Wash is approximately US$3.5 million while a fracced horizontal well costs about US$6‐7m. The USA experience demonstrates how well costs are significantly reduced with experience in the play and when economies of scale in drilling and completion are achieved.
• The Granite Wash is now recognised as having amongst the best economics of all tight gas plays in the USA.
For more information see the websites of Chesapeake Energy (www.chk.com), Linn Energy (www.linnenergy.com), Newfield Exploration (www.newfield.com), Forest Oil (www.forestoil.com) and Penn Virginia (www.pennvirginia.com).
• Warro has the potential to replicate the success of the Granite Wash. Recent work by Discovery Group and Ely and Associates on analogous Granite Wash data indicate vertical Warro wells should each yield between 3 – 6 BCF with upside of 8 BCF and with IPs in the range 3‐ 8mmcfd. Horizontals wells are expected to more than double these initial production rates. A recap on the Warro field and its potential
• Warro is located about 200km north of Perth.
It is only 30km from the Parmelia gas pipeline that services Dongara to Perth, and this pipeline has substantial spare capacity.
• The Warro tight sands are 3,700 to 4,200m deep, with large net pay of about 350m. The reservoir covers an area of nearly 7,000 hectares with up to 5 TCF of gas in place.
• Gaffney Cline estimates the Warro field contains a 3C recoverable resource of 2.1 TCF (or 1.14 TCF of 2C recoverable).
• There is a shortfall of gas supply in Western Australia. The North West shelf operators are focussing on more lucrative LNG markets forcing up the price of domestic gas.
Over the last 2 years the WA contract gas price has been in the range of $8 to $10 per MCF. Alcoa of Australia – Warro farm‐in partner
• Alcoa operates the world’s largest integrated bauxite mining and alumina refining system, which is located at Wagerup south of Perth in Western Australia. Natural gas is the primary energy source for these operations.
• Under a farm‐in agreement made in June 2008, Alcoa may earn a 65% interest in Warro by expenditure of A$100 million. Latent Petroleum is the operator and retains a 25% interest. Transerv holds a 10% interest carried for the first A$40 million in expenditure, which includes these next appraisal programs.
Under the agreement, each party retains control of its share of Warro gas production.
• After funding Warro 3, Alcoa requested additional time to fully review the results and to undertake the necessary internal approvals process to continue with the next stage. Since the farm‐in agreement was signed there has been an historic decline in aluminium metal prices as a result of the global financial crisis, and deferral of a planned expansion of Alcoa’s Wagerup alumina refinery.
• Alcoa have now completed this review and approval process and committed to the next stage at Warro comprising both the Warro 4 well and a 3D seismic survey, at an estimated cost of over A$20 million. The Warro partners anticipate that decisions in relation to future stages will be made much quicker.
•There is growing recognition world‐wide of the value of tight gas plays, comprising tight sands, coal bed methane and shale gas. The coal bed methane boom is well known in eastern Australia. In the USA the boom in shale gas and tight sands is even larger.
•The advent of horizontal wells and improved fraccing and completion techniques has dramatically improved the economics of these plays, assisted by generally higher energy prices. The refinement of these techniques has come a long way, even in recent years.
•Once the correct drilling and completion techniques for a play are established, they can be replicated over hundreds or thousands of well locations unlocking a large known gas resource.
The size of the resource is usually very large because the gas is trapped (tight) throughout the whole formation, whereas conventional plays rely upon less frequent and less predictable traps of mobilised (free flowing) gas.
•Some of the largest oil and gas companies in the world have recently paid billions of dollars to buy into tight gas plays in the USA and eastern Australia.
•It is now estimated that there is more than 1,000 TCF of potential gas production from tight gas plays the USA, which currently contribute almost 50% of the total US domestic gas market of 19.4 TCF per annum. Tight gas has reversed a long decline in US domestic reserves of hydrocarbons. Summary Transerv is delighted with Alcoa’s commitment to the next stage of the Warro program, covering both an appraisal well and an extensive 3D seismic program. Warro is a large, known onshore gas resource located close to Perth.
Recent developments in analogous play types in the USA dramatically improve the confidence of Warro being commercially successful. Transerv looks forward to this knowhow being successfully applied in the Warro 4 appraisal well to be drilled later this year. Contact Details Brett Mitchell Executive Director Telephone: +61 8 9324 1177 For and on behalf of the Board.