Mirvac forecasts upswing in property market
Mirvac Group (MGR) said that the company had earned 48% of its projected earnings in the first six months of the year, a strong result considering that traditionally earnings for the property group were skewed 40/60 to the latter half of the year.
In a presentation to Shaw Stockbroking last week, Mirvac said that construction activity would return to ‘normal’ levels by next year, with a forecast for high rental growth as purchasers other than first-home buyers return to the market.
Mirvac also forecast yields would increase as vacancy rates in the residential space move to under 3%.
Mirvac estimated that construction activity would increase in 2010 and in coming years as a 6-year downtrend in home building has led to a significant undersupply of homes.
At Australia’s current rate of population growth, Mirvac said that around 165,000 new dwellings were required each year. Since around 15% of new homes are built to replace existing dwellings, the real figure for new homes required is closer to between 180,000 to 190,000 annually, the group added.
Currently, Australia is building around 150,000 new homes per year, leaving a shortfall of around 40,000 homes each year.
Of further challenge for the market, and especially companies which source their staff from the general construction market, the Building Education Revolution was placing pressure on finding qualified builders and crowding out the wider housing market.
Meanwhile, Mirvac said Friday it had issued and priced $150 million in new domestic bond notes, as it rolls over expiring debt.
“The earnings impact of this debt issue is in line with expectation and accordingly our earnings guidance of 9.2 cents per stapled security for FY10 remains unchanged,” Mirvac CEO, Nick Collishaw said today.
Mirvac said it has around $200 million in cash in the bank, with gearing at around 23%.
On the earnings front for residential property, Mirvac said it was predicting the sale of 641 lots in FY11, bringing in around $566.9 million, with $383.4 million pre-sold, or around 66%.
In commercial property and office stock, Mirvac said the national vacancy rate was around 9.3%, with expectations of a peak around 10% to 11% in 2010, citing Jones Lang LaSalle figures.
The supply pipeline of new office space for Sydney and Melbourne was expected to be lower than for Brisbane and Perth, the company said.
At 1112 AEDT, Mirvac shares were down 2.5c to $1.47. This morning Macquarie downgraded the stock to underperform saying that the economic recovery was already priced in.